Why Small Businesses Under $1 Million Say They Are Fighting the Trade War Alone

Ottawa's tariff program starts at $1 million in annual revenue, and the owners below that line say they are fighting the trade war alone. A Financial Post feature published September 30, 2026 profiles Bernard Hellen of Toronto's Miniprints, a maker of model-railroad figurines whose company makes less than $1 million a year. That puts it under the floor of Ottawa's tariff program, the regional piece of the $7.5 billion package announced August 25. Below the floor, the open door is a lender's.

One exporter lost 40 per cent of his U.S. customers

Miniprints ships handcrafted figurines to 36 countries. About 85 per cent of those shipments went to the United States, around 400 boxes a month. In September he expected to ship 271 boxes, worldwide.

The goods had been exempt under CUSMA from the Section 232 tariffs. After talks collapsed in late August they were caught by the 50 per cent Section 338 levies under HTS code 9503, the line for toys, dolls, puzzles and scale models. More than 40 per cent of his American customer base has gone since.

"I'm getting lost in the shuffle, and that's the part that really hurts," Hellen told the paper.

The federal package stops at $1 million

The $7.5 billion package, per the August 25 Finance Canada release, includes $1.5 billion for the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, Ottawa's tariff program. In southern Ontario it is run by FedDev Ontario, whose business test asks for "$1 million in annual revenue in one or both of your company's last two fiscal years." Hellen is under it. His supply chain, the article adds, was not meaningfully affected.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business counts 53,112 small and medium-sized businesses directly hit by U.S. tariffs, Canadian counter-tariffs or both, a figure we reported in September. It says the main tariff supports "continue to exclude about half of the small business community." Provinces including Alberta, B.C., Manitoba and Ontario have their own tariff relief programs, the article notes, and eligibility varies.

Two economists, one poll

Keith Willoughby, dean of the Edwards School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan, told the paper a recession and more layoffs are possible without a deal soon. He opposes the September 8 counter-tariffs.

Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics, does not expect a recession. He forecasts annualized growth of 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, slowing to about one per cent in the fourth quarter and early 2027.

Abacus Data found 78 per cent of 3,000 adults intended to boycott U.S. products in February 2025. Nineteen months later, 77 per cent of 1,479 said the same. In September, 61 per cent said Canadian-made goods cost more.

Hellen and 10 colleagues have formed the Canadian Model Railroad Manufacturers, a marketing alliance to grow domestic demand. He has taken the issue to his MP and MPP.