BDC Study Puts Major-Project Boom at $443 Billion in Economic Activity by 2030

Major projects across Canada could generate $443 billion in economic activity between 2026 and 2030, says a study the Business Development Bank of Canada released October 6. BDC counts 280,000 businesses that could be directly touched. If you are in one of those supply chains, the study sizes the demand. It also names what is holding back the owners not yet in: cash flow and upfront costs. It changes no lending program.

Behind the number: $670 billion in possible new investment

The study, The opportunity ahead: a defining moment for Canadian businesses, estimates major projects could attract $670 billion of extra investment over the same five years. The Transition Accelerator helped BDC with the numbers. By its count, housing and civil infrastructure leads at $220.1 billion, then energy at $159.8 billion, defence at $153.7 billion, mining and natural gas at $125.8 billion, and AI data centres at $11.2 billion.

The study says all that could lift GDP 4.1% above where it would otherwise be by 2030. BDC's headline calls the $443 billion revenue for SMEs. The study itself calls it cumulative economic activity, more than $10,000 per Canadian.

It lands three weeks after the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, where the Prime Minister's Office counted nearly $500 billion in announced commitments.

Owners name cash flow, bidding and payment terms

BDC surveyed 1,000 SMEs online between May 4 and 25, 750 already working on major projects and 250 interested but not yet in. The sample is not weighted and not random, and the study says so.

Of the owners already in, 67% expect to do more of this work over the next two years, the release says. But 54% of those say they can only grow a little.

Of the owners not yet in, 44% point to upfront costs, cash flow and financial risk, and that rises to 63% among the larger firms. The owners already in name different pressures: competitive bidding, unfavorable payment terms, unclear project scope and contract conditions.

Smaller firms in retail and manufacturing were less likely to see a place for themselves, mostly over risk and cash. Accommodation and food services make up 8% of the lightly involved group, and that side of the economy is already carrying the margin squeeze Restaurants Canada reported in July.

What owners say they need

Better information about what is coming, smaller contract lots, lower financial and bonding requirements, and payment terms they can plan around, per the release.

"The stars are aligning for Canadian businesses," said Isabelle Hudon, BDC's President and CEO. Pierre Cl�roux, BDC's chief economist: "The supply chain for these projects is critical, and it won't be easy."